The Biden Administration's Foreign Policy Blunders, Part 3: Allowing Russia to Invade Ukraine & Implications For the Middle East
In early 2022, the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, demanded assurances from the United States and European countries about the expansion of NATO eastwards. Russia is a fragile state kept together through various conventions and activities that might be considered undemocratic by Western liberal democratic thinkers. However, that is and has been Russia's reality since the 17th Century. At the end of 2021, Russia's war in the east of Ukraine, the Donbas war had claimed some 14,000 lives.[1]. Everyone saw trouble brewing. Russia needed diplomatic guarantees and clarity in one of the most uncertain periods in history. US President Joe Biden failed to give the Russians a clear guarantee. This created a gap that war profiteers in the US, UK, and Europe sought to cash in on. German Chancellor Angela Merkel led the West for a long time and firmly discouraged war. After Mrs. Merkel handed over power to his deputy, Biden simply failed to take up the position as a definite leader who could halt a war. His reckless leadership contributed to the uncertainty that allowed Putin to invade Ukraine. Now, after over 500,000 deaths, Biden has no plan to end the war. The world awaits a new leader to take over and end this war between Ukraine and Russia. This article examines how the failure to prevent an invasion of Ukraine created a dangerous world that would become the hallmark of Biden’s worst action (or inaction) in the White House.
The Dangers Were Apparent – Biden Simply Refused to Avert them, He Had A Choice
Even the most basic student of international relations could foresee three things at the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2024.
First, it was apparent that Ukraine would be ruined and ultimately betrayed.
Secondly, the populists supporting the arming of Ukraine were bound to turn around and work with Russia to destabilize America and the West.
Thirdly, it was clear that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would put the world in a dangerous position and closer to a World War.
No leader could overlookthese—let alone the president of the United States, who is, by default, the Leader of the Free World. Biden simply overlooked the writings on the wall and refused to talk to the Russians.
In some cases, it was so apparent that Biden and his vice president, Harris, were avoidant. They just refrained from acting when they were supposed to. This was the political error of omission.
Putin, under pressure from his military and political advisors, decided to invade Ukraine. The whole process has been a mess and caused unnecessary suffering for everyone in the world.
Sanctions on Russia have failed to force Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. Again, even the uninitiated could see that in the test of wills, Russia simply could allow its ego to force it to withdraw under the threat of sanctions. Thus, the Russian resistance and effort to stay afloat cost everyone and caused prices to skyrocket.
Biden took over during a global pandemic that had affected the global economy. He should have known that the last thing the world needed was another war. In this sense, Angela Merkel was often more responsible and proactive in safeguarding the international economy by putting pressure on Russia and Ukraine to refrain from all-out war.
Destruction of Ukraine – No One Can Help Them, But The Military Industrial Complex Had Everything to Gain
Indeed, the destruction of Ukraine in any invasion by Russia was inevitable. Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, had powers that the US and Europe could not possibly limit. Therefore, the ruining of Ukraine was a giving.
Nonetheless, interest groups capitalized on Ukraine’s political leaders’ inexperience to encourage a military solution. In the often cited figure, the war has cost the US over $175 billion, and of this, about $110 billion has been accounted for by the Ukrainian government[2]. About $69 billion went into acquiring weapons from Europe and North America. This comes with a profit margin that cannot be accurately estimated.
Thus, there were benefits for some elites to encourage the war. This was achieved by misleading the inexperienced Ukrainian politicians. The Biden family is known to have had working relationships with Ukraine from which they benefited. Thus, it is clear that there was a motivation to allow the invasion to continue, so some critical figures could benefit.
Interest is universal. However, balancing interests for a healthy society is the duty of the President. Biden should have known when and how to balance the path for America.
At this point, Biden is not sure of what to do about Ukraine.
No one knows how Ukraine will end this war with Russia.
However, what we know is that Ukraine has been ruined. Ukraine is now in a Kafkaesque situation where they can do almost nothing but demand more arms. However, it was apparent from the onset that this was not sustainable.
Evidently, it was a mistake to urge Ukraine on from the beginning. The military industrial complex could have still made a fortune by reinforcing Ukraine as the new external border of NATO. This could have happened without firing a shot. The military solution that encouraged the invasion destroyed the conducive international political order that emerged after the end of the Cold War.
Now, we are back to the original position which could have been attained without a war. We are now negotiating over the bodies of over 500,000 people. A proactive president would have avoided that, conjured the right vision, and projected a solution to avoid such a war.
Russia’s Counter: Neocolonialism & Indoctrination of Americans & Westerners
Sanctions of Russia created unprecedented situations.
A group of immature politicians created an emotional populist narrative aimed at excluding (canceling) Russia from every Western forum.
The first thing that came out of this was that Russia created new mechanisms of surviving. This included bilateral agreements that saw Russia sell its natural resources cheaply to emerging countries. This undermined the American leadership of the global order.
Biden did not focus on the inevitable outcome of his actions and decisions. If he did, he would have placed some limits on Russia as they were put through unfair and unjust sanctions.
The irony of this situation is that Russia's counter-offensive of mass sanctioning will rely on the same populists who smeared Russia. The former Soviet Union was known for anti-colonial narratives around the world – especially in the developing world.
Today, Russia is leading the organization of countries in the Global South. This is leading to an anti-colonialism narrative that is being used to limit and restrict America’s global dominance.
Interestingly, the same populists who asked for Russia to be canceled are the agents of this anti-colonialism narrative. The victim ideology is being spread through some American universities and social media cells. This is creating a generation that hates the entire values that built America.
CRINKS & The New Cold War
In their quest to survive militarily, Russia has organized the CRINKS – China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to create a collaboration against the United States and their allies. Russia has led a new Cold War that is spreading widely.
At the moment, the Middle East is facing a lot of wars because of CRINKS. Without the invasion of Ukraine, the conditions that brought together these authoritarian countries militarily would not have transpired. Thus, the irresponsibility of the Biden Administration and their over-idealistic view has created this situation – whether it is intended or unintended.
Blinken’s 11 trips to the Middle East is due in part to the CRINKS who have converged to support Iran to destabilize the region. All of this can be linked to Ukraine and the attempt to destroy Russia. In their quest for survival, Russia found it expedient to mobilize their allies to create a new global order.
CRINKS is a strong military alliance, but they are expanding their global leverage through BRICs. This has created the foundations for a new Cold War and an anti-West axis that can stand against the United States.
If Biden had stood firm from the onset and sat face-to-face with Russia at the highest levels, America would still retain its global leadership position. Now, it appears that Russia is leading a revolution and departure.
With China’s central role in the international political economy, this conflict will inevitably force the West to work with CRINKS in some form. However, this will be with far less leverage than they wielded in the past. The cracks were created by Biden’s failure to stop the war in Ukraine.
Conclusion
Biden tried to please everybody but, in the process, sacrificed serious geostrategic components that kept America in the lead. His failure to stop Russia from invading Ukraine is at the crux of his greatest errors. The consequences were apparent. And stopping the invasion required relatively little. The outcome of Biden's failure in Ukraine has been disproportionately high. It has ruined Ukraine in ways that will take many decades to fix, and it has given Russia motivation to undermine the United States through the same populists who supported the sanctioning of Russia. Worse of all, Biden's failures that encouraged Russia to invade Ukraine created a gap that caused Russia to mobilize the Chinese, Iranians, and North Koreans to militarily destabilize the global order. Russia is going further to mobilize other countries to oppose American hegemony. All this boils down to Biden's failure to act decisively to discourage Putin from invading Ukraine. This has created a gap that will make the balancing act of the next president more difficult.
[1] United Nations Human Rights Commission. “Conflict-Related Civilian Casualties in Ukraine” Office of the High Commissioner. Published: January 27, 2022. Available at: https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/Conflict-related%20civilian%20casualties%20as%20of%2031%20December%202021%20%28rev%2027%20January%202022%29%20corr%20EN_0.pdf
[2] Jonathan Masters & Will Merrow. "How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine?" Council For Foreign Relations. Published: September 27, 2024. Available at: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine
