It's In Hamas' Best Interest to Return the Hostages before January 20th.
The October 7 War is entering its 15th month.
Hamas still holds on to some 100 Israeli hostages captured on the dreaded day.
The leadership of Hamas sit comfortably in Doha with a one-sided view of rationalizing their actions. In this direction, they encourage a continuation of the war, which has taken over 40,000 Gazan lives to-date.
Trump has issued a warning. And what the world knows about the US-president elect is that he carries out what he says.
Thus far, Hamas, which is a Sunni Islamist organization has created a lot of burden for the Shiite militias that backed events that led to the October 7 War.
It must be recalled that Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab countries like Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE were pushing for the use of civil disobedience and peaceful protests in the years leading to the attacks.
Hamas in their quest for the execution of their radical ideas, gravitated towards the hawkish Shiite militias, most notably Iran's IRGC, and Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Since October 7th, the Iranian proxy network has paid a disproportionate price by losing tens of billions of dollars in military investments in Syria and Lebanon. The Assad regime has crumbled, Hezbollah's top and mid-level leaders have been decimated, and Iran has been left defenseless.
The obvious card Trump is likely to play is to put pressure on the financiers of Hamas before the October 7th terrorist acts.
Many former Trump advisors are not fans of Iran. Thus, it is apparent that disproportionate pressure will be placed on Iran to get Hamas to return the hostages, and proceed to demand Qatar expel Hamas leaders in the country.
This will inevitably lead to a lot of complications and challenges.
Hamas leaders are highly indebted to Qatar for their hospitality and protections. Anywhere around the world, the group's upper echelon will not be safe. Qatar grants them the neutrality and protections Hamas' top leaders crave.
Iran is most likely to come under renewed sanctions for their nuclear program and destabilizing acts in the region. With Russia still reeling under the losses from the war in Ukraine, Iran is not likely to get an easy passage through the rest of the year.
Thus, by holding Iran accountable for bankrolling and encouraging the October 7th attacks, the US is likely to show the world that supporting terror in Gaza will not be tolerated.
Previous Trump advisors have recommended many radical actions - including attacking Iran's navy in its entirety for events relating to October 7th.
It is therefore clear that things will change significantly in the Middle East after January 20th.
By now, Hamas is aware beyond doubt that the days the group ruled Gaza unquestionably and launched perennial wars against Israel are far behind us. Those days belong to history. And by holding on to the remaining hostages, Hamas is jeopardizing regional peace.
In conclusion, the best solution is for the remaining Hamas leaders to unilaterally gather all the hostages in the Gaza Strip and drive them to the Israeli border. That is the only option remaining - otherwise, Trump's words will become a reality:
There will be hell to pay.
