Iran’s Grand Survival Strategy & Why the Iranian People Will Eventually Take Down the Regime!
The Iranian regime is poised to pursue a highly regressive governance structure that takes Iranians back by many decades. Saudi Arabia, which was once an ultraconservative state has announced sweeping reforms because the world is changing at an unusually fast pace[1].
Iran on the other hand, is steeped in systems that have caused the country to regress in many ways. This includes:
· An attempt to export their ideology through excessive force
· Huge expenditure on unnecessary military adventurism in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Yemen, and
· Massive provocation of the international community through their nuclear enrichment program.
At the end of the scale, the Iranian state has been hijacked by hardliners in the IRGC who seek to export the revolution to different parts of the world. This has been presented in the name of morality.
Yet, most of the leading states in the region have puritan religious foundations and yet, desist from engaging aggressively around the world through military efforts.
On October 1, 2024, Iran fired a barrage of some 180 missiles against Israel. This was in response to Israel’s execution of leaders of Iranian proxy militia groups directly positioned against Israel, including Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon.
Fearing a loss of reputation and bowing to the pressures of the populists Iran has incited for many years, they fired these ballistic missiles into Israel. Apparently, Iran knew that Israel would strike back. And knowing they have an inferior air defense system, Iran launched three diplomatic campaigns in the ten days after the attack:
1. The supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei delivered a sermon to render their war against Israel as a war involving Islam against an infidel Zionist state [the sermon under review in this article],
2. The foreign minister of Iran was sent to Saudi Arabia to seek the neutrality of the Arab states in a possible war between Iran and Israel, and
3. The new president of Iran was sent to Russia to seek assurance of their cordial relations and reiterate the continuation of military cooperation between the two countries, which has increased significantly in recent months[2].
All of this shows Iran playing strategic games to enhance support and collaboration in case of a major Israeli military offensive against them. However, this Iran regime has used the current international order as a means to an end. It has used bad faith methods to undermine the system and its ideals in many ways.
On the other hand, the 89 million Iranian people are bearing the brunt of all the pressure, stress, and strain of this misguided military adventurism.
According to some estimates, Iran has lost over $50 billion in their support for the Assad regime in Syria[3] and another set of tens of billions of dollars to Hezbollah in Lebanon via foreign aid and other money laundering initiatives.
Meanwhile, inflation in Iran is extremely high. The average inflation in 2023 before the Gaza war was almost 64%. Hamas’ actions on October 7, 2023, which was actively supported by Iran tightened the economic situation for Iranians. Government revenues fell, and the Iranian currency, the Rial was further devalued.
Some 15% of Iranians have fallen into poverty in the past decade due to various rounds of sanctions linked to Iran’s military adventurism and illegitimate actions on the regional scale. This is due to unemployment, and corruption at the highest level as well as the weak banking system and crippling local laws.
As a matter of fact, the crippling local laws function hand-in-hand with the repressive systems used by the regime to hold on to power.
It is therefore conclusive that the Iranian regime has been pushed to its limits. The grand strategy for survival will not last long. And just as the Shah’s regime collapsed from the inside, the current regime is likely to lose its credibility before the people.
Until sweeping reforms are made in Iran, there is no other direction, but a collapse of the regime due to its own colossal failures to uplift the Iranian people.
[1] Saudi Gazette. "Full transcript of Crown Prince interview on reforms, religious, future of Saudi Arabia and relations with US" Published March 22, 2022. Available at: https://saudigazette.com.sa/article/617738
[2] Javad Heiran-Nia. "The Roots of Increasing Military Cooperation Between Iran and Russia" Stimson Center. Published: October 16, 2024. Available at: https://www.stimson.org/2024/the-roots-of-increasing-military-cooperation-between-iran-and-russia/
[3] Hamidreza Azizi. "How Iran Lost Syria And Why a Stable Post-Assad Future Will Require Tehran’s Involvement" Foreign Affairs. Published: December 23, 2024. Available at: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-iran-lost-syria
